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Assinaturas digitais > Blogue > The Power of Small Changes

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The Power of Small Changes

Postou 10 de maio de 2016 Rotman Professor Anita McGahan and London Business School Professor Costas Markides discuss how small changes can help solve some of our biggest global problems.

IN THINKING HOW TO SOLVE some of our biggest global problems — issues like poverty, malnutrition and climate change — a good place to start is by identifying some of the small changes that could yield big improvements.

This is not a new principle. In 1961, MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz constructed a mathematical model containing a set of 12 differential equations to predict weather patterns. One day, he wanted to re-examine a sequence of data and, to save time, he manually entered data from a printout of the previous run in the model. To his amazement, the results from the second run were dramatically different from the results of the first.

Upon further examination, he realized that he had entered the data to three decimal points — whereas the previous run had used the same data, but to six decimal points. This tiny difference in initial conditions had produced completely different results. These observations ultimately led him to formulate what we now call ‘The Butterfly Effect’, a term derived from an academic paper he presented in 1972: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?”

The Butterfly Effect has since been used to explain numerous major changes in society. In The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell describes how William Bratton — first as head of the New York Transit Authority’s police force (1990-1994) and then as head of the NYPD (1994-1996) — dramatically reduced crime in the city by implementing a few (seemingly) minor changes, such as cracking down onfare-dodging on the subway and penalizing quality-of-life crimes, like public drunkenness and public urination.
Similarly, in their best-selling book Nudge, professors Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein describe several examples where small changes have produced radical results. For example, by painting a life-sized image of a black housefly on each urinal, authorities at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport reduced ‘spillage’ in men’s washrooms by 80 per cent.
Elsewhere, officials in Minnesota achieved a significant increase in tax compliance, simply by telling people that more than 90 per cent of Minnesotans already complied in full with their obligations; and in Texas, authorities achieved a 29 per cent reduction in roadside littering within a year of launching the ‘Don’t Mess with Texas’ advertising campaign.

Equally impressive examples of the Butterfly Effect have been provided by social psychologists. In one study, asking people to donate blood by having a friendly peer comply with the request was found to increase the success rate from 25 per cent to 67 per cent. More importantly, none of the subjects in the no-model experiment followed up to actually give blood, whereas 33 per cent of the subjects in the model experiment did so.

Similarly, simply commending children for already being very clean and tidy was found to increase their tidiness by a factor of four in the short term — a behaviour that remained unchanged long after the experiment was completed. Meanwhile, children who were told to be more tidy increased their tidiness in the short term by a factor of two — but reverted to their pre-test level of littering after the experiment. Children who were neither told to be more tidy nor praised for being tidy did not change their behaviour.
There are also examples from the world of business. In one study, workers in a pyjama factory were asked to take on board a seemingly small change in the way the pyjamas were sewn or boxed. One group of workers was simply informed of the change. In another group, a selected team of workers was asked to meet with manage

Inmates getting some music therapy at Norway’s Halden Fengsel Prison.

A classic example of how changing a system’s purpose or goal can produce dramatic behavioural change is provided by the redesign of Norway’s prison system. Halden Fengsel, one of Norway’s newest prisons, was 10 years and 1.5 billion Norwegian kroner (US$252m) in the making. Spread over 75 acres of sloping forest in southeastern Norway, the facility boasts amenities such as a sound studio, jogging trails and a freestanding two-bed house where inmates can host their families during overnight visits. Unlike many U.S. prisons, the air isn’t tinged with the smell of sweat and urine. Instead, the scent of orange sorbet emanates from the ‘kitchen laboratory’, where inmates take cooking courses.

Halden — Norway’s second largest prison, with a capacity of 252 inmates, opened in 2010 — embodies the guiding principles of the country’s penal system: that repressive prisons do not work and that treating prisoners humanely boosts their chances of reintegrating into society. Design plays a key role in the facility’s rehabilitation efforts. The objective is for the prison to look as much like the outsideworld as possible. To avoid an institutional feel, exteriors are not concrete but made of bricks, alvanized steel and larch; the buildings seem to grow organically from the woodlands. While there is one obvious symbol of incarceration — a six-metre concrete security wall along the perimeter — trees obscure it, and its top has been rounded off.

The cells rival well-appointed college dorm rooms, with flat-screen TVs and mini fridges. Designers chose long, vertical windows for the rooms because they let in more sunlight; and there are no bars on the doors. Every 10 to 12 cells share a living room and kitchen. With their stainless-steel countertops, wraparound sofas and coffee tables, they resemble IKEA showrooms. Halden’s greatest asset, though, may be the strong relationship between staff and inmates. Prison guards don’t carry guns; that createsunnecessary intimidation and social distance. Indeed, they routinely eat meals and play sports with the inmates, and half of the guards are women. It is believed this decreases aggression — and prisoners receive questionnaires asking how their prison experience can be improved.
Countries track recidivism rates differently, but even an imperfect comparison suggests that the Norwegian model works. Within two years of their release, 20 per cent of Norway’s prisoners end up back in jail. In the UK and the U.S., that figure is between 50 and 60 per cent. Of course, a low level of criminality gives Norway a massive advantage. Its prison roll lists a mere 3,300, or 69 per 100,000 people, compared with 2.3 million, or 753 per 100,000, in the U.S. — the highest rate in the world. Yet by changing the purpose of this system, its performance has been transformed.

Anita McGahan and Costas Markides

In closing
Rather than focusing our time and resources solely on making major breakthroughs, we recommend that leaders also spend some of their time and resources thinking about the potential power of small changes. As indicated herein, small innovations are often as effective as big ones. RM

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Anita McGahan is the Rotman Chair in Management and Professor of Management at the Rotman School of Management. Costas Markides is the Robert Bauman Professor of Strategic Leadership at London Business School. The preceeding was adapted from a longer article published in London Business School Review.
Rotman faculty research is ranked #3 globally by the Financial Times.